News · October 28, 2026, 06:30 UTC
U.S. consumer confidence improved in October, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rising 7.5 points to 91.7 from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September, the New York-based nonprofit reported on Oct. 27, 2026. The reading returned the gauge to roughly its June level, according to the organization’s press release.
The survey period for the preliminary October results was Oct. 1–21. The Conference Board attributed the gain primarily to improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions, and said the recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October.
What happened
The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased 8.6 points to 120.4, The Conference Board said. The Expectations Index, covering the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, recovered 6.9 points to 72.6, only partially reversing three consecutive monthly declines.
Net views of current business conditions rose 4.8 percentage points to 3.6%, after a notably negative reading in September. The labor market differential, the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get,” improved 2.4 percentage points to +5.3%.
All three components of the Expectations Index improved. Net expectations for business conditions rose 5.7 percentage points to –3.0%, while net expectations for the labor market increased 1.8 percentage points to –11.1%. Net expectations for household income improved 3.5 percentage points to +6.7%.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations declined in October but remained elevated at 5.8%, according to the release. Consumers still expected higher interest rates over the next year, though more expected stock prices to rise than fall, The Center Square reported via Yahoo Finance.
Fergus McCormick, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board, said in the release that despite the October increase, confidence “remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years.” He added that consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, likely reflecting higher price levels and persistent inflation.
Write-in responses showed continued frustration with rising costs, with more references to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices, the release said. Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated, while mentions of jobs and employment as a concern ticked up.
On a six-month moving average basis, only consumers under age 35 and those with household income of $100k or more reported increased confidence. Confidence improved across all political affiliations, but much more so for Republicans, The Conference Board said.
Separately, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, released Oct. 23, showed sentiment at 48.0 in October versus 48.1 in September, PYMNTS reported. Meanwhile, the October 2026 PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index edged up to 54.2 from 54.1.
Analysis: Why it matters for investors
The rebound suggests household sentiment stabilized after a weak September, but the improvement appears modest and conditional. The Conference Board tied the gain to cheaper gasoline, and McCormick noted the long-term downward trend remains intact. If energy costs resume climbing, the sentiment boost could prove temporary.
Consumers’ plans to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months, alongside inflation expectations of 5.8%, point to caution that could weigh on consumer-facing sectors. For example, expected purchases of durable goods including smartphones, computers, laptops and tablets declined by more than 1% in October, according to The Center Square.
Interest-rate expectations also matter. Consumers anticipated higher rates, and NTD reported that traders largely expected the Federal Reserve to hold the benchmark rate steady while betting on another quarter-point hike in December. Higher borrowing costs could further pressure big-ticket purchases. None of this constitutes a forecast; sentiment surveys can diverge from actual spending.
Who is affected
Retailers and consumer discretionary companies face a signal that households intend to trim spending on services and durable goods, with the exception of movies, theater, live entertainment and sporting events, per The Center Square. More respondents planned domestic trips and fewer anticipated traveling abroad.
Age and income groups diverge. Only households earning $100k or more and consumers under 35 showed higher confidence on a six-month moving average, while Gen X, Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation continued to trail Gen Z and Millennials significantly.
Policymakers also have a stake: inflation expectations near 6% and anticipated rate increases shape the backdrop for the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
What is still uncertain
The sources do not say how much of the October confidence gain will translate into actual spending, nor how gasoline prices will move in November. The full breakdown of recession-probability responses beyond “somewhat likely” as the most cited answer has not been disclosed. The durability of the improvement across income groups also remains unclear.
Conclusion: What to watch next
Attention now turns to whether gasoline prices stay near current levels. NTD reported the national average for regular gasoline was almost $4.27 a gallon on Oct. 27, down more than 20 cents from a month earlier, according to AAA, while diesel averaged $6.35. The next Conference Board release and the Federal Reserve’s December decision will indicate whether October’s rebound marks a turning point or a pause in a longer decline.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the Consumer Confidence Index in October 2026?
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October 2026, up from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September. The reading returned the index to roughly its June level.
Why did consumer confidence improve in October?
The Conference Board said the gain was driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions. Senior economist Fergus McCormick said the recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October.
What are consumers' inflation expectations?
Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations declined in October but remained elevated at 5.8%, according to The Conference Board. Consumers also expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months.
Did consumers plan to spend more?
No. McCormick said consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, likely reflecting higher price levels and persistent inflation. Expected purchases of durable goods declined by more than 1% in October.
How did other sentiment measures compare?
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed sentiment at 48.0 in October versus 48.1 in September, PYMNTS reported. The October 2026 PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index edged up to 54.2 from 54.1.
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